نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه کردستان
2 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران
3 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
چکیده
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
In this research, the effect of changing the import tariff of beef and livestock inputs including corn and soybean meal on the price,, domestic production and demand of beef and chicken meat in Mashhad city has been investigated using the system dynamics method. First, the causal loop diagram is designed, then by formulating the model, its stock flow diagram is drawn and simulated. Based on the simulation results from March 2017 to February 2027 and the sensitivity analysis of key variables, if the goal of the policy is to change the consumption pattern towards more consumption of red meat, the policy of reducing the import tariff of meat and livestock corn is recommended. The findings show that imposing a higher import tariff for beef does not help much to increase domestic production, while reducing the import tariff for beef and increasing its import significantly increases consumer demand for this product and bring the per capita consumption of red meat closer to its standard level in the country. Also, the results show that reducing the corn import tariff to zero can significantly increase the demand for beef and at the same time help reduce the price of chicken. Finally, based on the results, it seems that imposing a 20% import tariff on soybean meal is appropriate. Although this tariff increases the price of chicken meat (22.27 percent) and decreases its demand (6.96 percent), it is justified from an economic point of view, considering that it increases the demand for red meat consumption.
)