شبیه‌سازی اثر تغییر تعرفه واردات گوشت و نهاده‌های دامی بر عرضه و تقاضای گوشت در شهر مشهد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه کردستان

2 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

در این پژوهش، اثر تغییر تعرفه واردات گوشت گوساله و نهاده‌های دامی شامل ذرت و کنجاله سویا بر قیمت، تولید داخلی و تقاضای گوشت گوساله و گوشت مرغ در شهر مشهد با استفاده از روش پویایی سیستم مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. ابتدا، حلقه‌های علت و معلولی طراحی شده و سپس، با ترکیب‌بندی مدل، نمودار انباشت جریان آن ترسیم شده و شبیه‌سازی شده است. بر مبنای نتایج شبیه‌سازی از فروردین 1396 تا اسفند 1405 و تحلیل حساسیت متغیرهای کلیدی، در صورتی که هدف از سیاست‌‌گذاری، تغییر الگوی مصرف به­سوی مصرف بیش‌‌تر گوشت قرمز باشد سیاست کاهش تعرفه واردات گوشت و ذرت دامی توصیه می‌شود. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند که وضع تعرفه واردات بالاتر برای گوشت گوساله، به افزایش تولید داخلی کمک چندانی نمی‎کند، این در حالی است که کاهش تعرفه واردات گوشت گوساله و افزایش واردات آن، به­میزان قابل توجهی تقاضای مصرف­کنندگان را برای این محصول افزایش می‌دهد و مصرف سرانه گوشت قرمز را در کشور به­میزان استاندارد آن نزدیک می‌کند. همچنین، نتایج بیانگر آن است که به صفر رساندن تعرفه واردات ذرت می‌تواند به­میزان قابل توجهی تقاضای گوشت گوساله را افزایش دهد و در عین حال به کاهش قیمت مرغ کمک کند. در نهایت، بر مبنای نتایج به­ نظر می‌رسد که وضع تعرفه واردات 20 درصدی برای کنجاله سویا مناسب باشد. این میزان تعرفه اگر چه به افزایش قیمت گوشت مرغ (27/22 درصد) و کاهش تقاضای آن (96/6 درصد) می‌انجامد، اما با توجه به اینکه تقاضا برای مصرف گوشت قرمز را افزایش می‌دهد از نظر اقتصادی، توجیه‌پذیر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulating the impact of import tariff changes of meat and livestock inputs on meat supply and demand in Mashhad city, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • P. Alizadeh 1
  • N. Shahnoushi 2
  • H. Mohammadi 2
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Animal products are the main source of energy and protein, and are the main part of the human diet. However, the consumption of red meat in Iran is not in good condition compared to its consumption in developed countries. One of the reasons for this issue is the sharp increase in the price of red meat in recent years, and the low income level of people in society. Among the most important reasons for the increase in the price of red meat is the high price of livestock feed, such as corn and soybean meal, and the lack of their production in the country. Given the instability of domestic production and the country's high dependence on imported livestock and poultry feed, the impossibility of self-sufficiency in red meat production, and, consequently, the inability to meet consumer demand through domestic production, the importance of international trade in red meat and livestock inputs is becoming more and more apparent. However, the import tariff rate of meat and livestock inputs has fluctuated a lot in recent decades, which has led to the fluctuation of the prices of these inputs in the market. For this reason, it is very necessary to investigate the effect of import tariffs on the price and supply and demand of meat to determine the optimal tariff to increase the welfare of producers and consumers of agricultural products.
Materials and methods: In this study, the effect of changes in the import tariff of veal and livestock inputs, including corn and soybean meal, on the price, domestic production, and demand of veal and chicken meat in Mashhad city, Iran, has been investigated using the system dynamics method and sensitivity analysis. For this purpose, first, the causal loops diagram is designed with Vensim DSS software, then by formulating the model, the stock and flow diagram is drawn and simulated. Also, the behavioral reproduction test has been used to validate the model. It should be noted that these causal loops were extracted based on the opinions of meat industry experts and previous related studies.
Results and discussion: The results of the behavioral reproduction test indicated the accuracy and validity of the designed model. The simulation results for 10 years (from March 2017 to March 2027) showed that reducing the veal import tariff from 10 to 4% reduced the retail price of veal by 1.40% and increased consumer demand for this product by 3.86%. Also, by reducing the import tariff of livestock corn as one of the inputs for the production of veal and chicken meat from 5 to 0%, the supply of veal will increase by 3.59% and the supply of chicken meat will increase by 9.02%. Also, due to the decrease in the price of these products, consumer demand for veal and chicken meat increased by 5.38 and 3.66%, respectively. Moreover, with the increase in soybean meal import tariff from 10 to 20%, the supply of chicken meat will decrease by 10.77% and the demand for it will also decrease by 6.96%. In this way, consumers replace chicken meat with veal in their consumption basket, and their demand for veal increases by 5.49%.
Conclusions: Based on the results, if the goal of the policy is to change the consumption pattern towards more consumption of red meat, it is better to consider the policy of reducing the import tariff of meat and corn. As the findings show, imposing a higher import tariff on veal does not help much to increase domestic production. At the same time, reducing the import tariff of veal and increasing its import significantly increases the consumer demand for this product and brings the per capita consumption of red meat closer to its standard level in the country. Also, the results showed that reducing the corn import tariff to zero can significantly increase the demand for veal and, at the same time, help reduce the price of chicken meat. Finally, it seems that imposing a 20% import tariff for soybean meal is appropriate. Although this tariff increases the price of chicken meat (22.27%) and decreases its demand (6.96%), it is economically justified considering that it increases the demand for red meat consumption.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Import tariff
  • Simulation
  • Veal
  • Chicken meat
Abdulla, I., Arshad, F. M., Bala, B. K., Bach, N. L., & Mohammadi, S. (2016). Management of beef cattle production in Malaysia: a step forward to sustainability. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 13(9), 976-983. doi: 10.3844/ajas.2016.976.983
Agricultural Education and Extension Institute. (2021). National and strategic document on the evolution of food security 2022-2031. Available at: https://agrilib.areeo.ac.ir/book_10112.pdf ]In Persian[
Alizadeh, P., Mohammadi, H., Shahnoushi, N., & Saghaian, S. H. (2024). Design and simulation of beef value chain in Mashhad city using: system dynamic approach. Agricultural Economics, 18(1), 183-209. doi: 10.22034/IAES.2024.2007173.2007 ]In Persian[
Bagheri, M., & Najafi, B. (2011). Welfare effects of import tariff reduction on rice market in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 3(9): 181-197. doi: 20.1001.1.20086407.1390.3.9.10.5  ]In Persian[
Beckman, J., Gale, F., Morgan, S., Sabala, E., Ufer, D. J., Valcu-Lisman, A., Zeng, W., & Arita, S. (2022). China's import potential for beef, corn, pork, and wheat, ERR-310, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.327174
Boysen, O., Boysen-Urban, K., Bradford, H., & Balié, J. (2019). Taxing highly processed foods: What could be the impacts on obesity and underweight in sub-Saharan Africa? World Development, 119, 55-67. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.03.006
Chung, M. G., Kapsar, K., Frank, K. A., & Liu, J. (2020). The spatial and temporal dynamics of global meat trade networks. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 16657. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-73591-2
Conrad Stephen, H. (2005). The dynamics of agricultural commodities and their responses to disruptions of considerable magnitude. Korean System Dynamics Review, 6(1), 17-32.
Ederer, P., Baltenweck, I., Blignaut, J. N., Moretti, C., & Tarawali, S. (2023). Affordability of meat for global consumers and the need to sustain investment capacity for livestock farmers. Animal Frontiers, 13(2), 45-60. doi: 10.1093/af/vfad004
FAO. (2021). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030, Available at: https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/af0d6d72-b15b-46d6-af82-4949ddc0d004/content
Feizabadi, Y. (2014). The theory of political tariff protection for agricultural sector in developing countries. International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development, 4(1), 1-5. doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.210352
Gilanpour, O., Kohansal, M., Permeh, Z., & Esmaeilpour, E. (2012).  Investigation of government intervention in the chicken meat market. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 16(63), 137-168. doi: 20.1001.1.17350794.1391.16.63.6.7 ]In Persian[
Gholamazad, M. A., Kavoosi-Kalashami, M., & Dehghanzadeh, H. (2024). Identifying and prioritizing obstacles to animal husbandry development in Guilan Province, Iran. Animal Production Research, 13(1), 81-94. doi: 10.22124/ar.2024.25212.1785 ]In Persian[
Heidari, H., Davoudi, M., & Pasha Zanousi, M. (2015). The effect of tariff reduction in agricultural sector on macroeconomic variables: using global trade analysis project (GTAP). Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 29(3), 308-318. doi: 10.22067/jead2.v0i0.45448 ]In Persian[
Ho Dinh, B., Nguyen Phuc, H., Bui, T., & Nguyen, H. (2020). Declining protection for Vietnamese agriculture under trade liberalization: evidence from an input–output analysis. Economies, 8(2), 43. doi: 10.3390/economies8020043.
Hosseini, M. A. (2004). Agricultural trade policy of iran and tariffication of non-tariff barriers of agricultural products. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 8(32), 1-40. ]In Persian]
Hwang, H., Mai, C. C., & Wu, S. J. (2017). Tariff escalation and vertical market structure. The World Economy, 40(8), 1597-1613. doi: 10.1111/twec.12414
Jamshidifar, M., Salarpour, M., Sabouhi, M., Mehrabi, H., & Ahmadpour Borazjani, M. (2017). Simulation of chicken meat supply chain facing bird Flu crisis: case study: Khorasan Razavi province. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 31(4), 321-331. doi: 10.22067/jead2.v31i4.67172 ]In Persian[
Khorasan Razavi Provencial Government. (2016). Available at: https://ostandari.khorasan.ir/
Koolwal, G., Grown, C., & Ahmed, N. (2023). How do agricultural import tariffs affect men and women smallholders? Evidence from Bangladesh. Policy Research Working Paper Series 10488, The World Bank.
Laibuni, N., & Kirui, L. (2018). Transforming Livestock Production through Systems Thinking Approach: the case of West Pokot and Narok Counties. Conference, July 28-August 2, Vancouver, British Columbia 276020, International Association of Agricultural Economists. doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.276020
Li, F. J., Dong, S. C., & Li, F. (2012). A system dynamics model for analyzing the eco-agriculture system with policy recommendations. Ecological Modelling, 227, 34-45. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.005
Lie, H., & Rich, K. (2016). Improving value chains for dairy farmers in Matiguás, Nicaragua: a system dynamics approach, 2016 International European Forum (151st EAAE Seminar), February 15-19, 2016, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 244479, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks. doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.244479
Liu, K., Yamazaki, M., Koike, A., & Mu, Y. (2022). Corn trade simulations of China: reduction in tariffs versus expansion in tariff-rate quotas. Journal of Economic Studies, 49(7), 1284-1303. doi: 10.1108/JES-08-2021-0380
Mesgari, I., Jabalameli, M. S., & Barzinpour, F. (2017). System dynamics modeling for national agricultural system with policy recommendations: application to Iran. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 54(2), 457-466.
Ministry of Agricultural Jahad. (2020). Agricultural Statistics, the second volume. Available at: https://www.maj.ir/ ]In Persian[
Ministry of Commerce. (2023). Iran export and import regulation 2011-2023. ]In Persian[
Muchopa, C. L. (2021). Economic impact of tariff rate quotas and underfilling: the case of canned fruit exports from South Africa to the EU. Economies, 9(4), 155. doi: 10.3390/economies9040155
Nicita, A. (2009). The price effect of tariff liberalization: Measuring the impact on household welfare. Journal of Development Economics, 89(1), 19-27. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2008.06.009
Nkgadima, K., & Muchopa, C. L. (2022). Do import tariff adjustments bolster domestic production? Analysis of the South African-Brazilian poultry market case. Economies, 10(12), 318. doi: 10.3390/economies10120318
Ostadi Jafari, M., & Javanshir, H. (2018). Business dynamics: System thinking and modeling for a complex world. Sharabiani Publisher, Tehran, Iran. [In Persian]
Paseban, F., Pourmoghim, S. J., & Afshari, Z. (2010). Interaction with world economy and impacts of reductions in tariff rate on Iranian agricultural s ector using computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE). Village and Development, 13(1), 83-109. ]In Persian[
Ridley, W. C., Luckstead, J., & Devadoss, S. (2024). Impacts of tariffs and NTMs on beef, pork and poultry trade. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 75(2), 546-572. doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12574
Salvatore, D. (2019). International economics. John Wiley & Sons.
Setianto, N. (2015). Systems thinking approach to develop smallholder beef farming in rural Java, Indonesia. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Queensland, Australia.
Shahabadi, A., & Tashakori, Z. (2012). Determinants of supply and demand of meat in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 4(4), 39-64. ]In Persian[
Statistical Center of Iran. (2021). Statistical yearbook of Khorasan Razavi Province. Available at: https://amar.org.ir/Portals/0/PropertyAgent/6200/Files/31039/400-09-05.pdf ]In Persian[
Statistical Center of Iran. (2022). Summary of the results of the cost and income statistics plan of urban and rural households in 2022. Available at: https://amar.org.ir/ ]In Persian[
Sterman, J. (2000). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw-Hill, Boston, USA.
Taghavi, M. (2013). International trade. Baztab Publications, Iran. ]In Persian[
Taheripour, F., & Tyner, W. E. (2018). Impacts of possible Chinese 25% tariff on US soybeans and other agricultural commodities. Choices, 33(2), 1-7. doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.273330
The Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration. (2021). Yearly statistics. Available at: https://www.irica.ir/index.php?newlang=far ]In Persian]
Turner, B. L., Menendez III, H. M., Gates, R., Tedeschi, L. O., & Atzori, A. S. (2016). System dynamics modeling for agricultural and natural resource management issues: Review of some past cases and forecasting future roles. Resources, 5(4), 40. doi: 10.3390/resources5040040
Umboh, S. J. K., Hakim, D. B., Sinaga, B. M., & Kariyasa, K. (2014). Impact of maize import tariff policy changes on production and consumption in Indonesia: A multimarket model analysis. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 2(2), 113-126. doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.168585
World Bank. (2019). Moving towards sustainability: The livestock sector and the world bank. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/moving-towards-sustainability-the-livestock-sector-and-the-world-bank
Yazdanshenas, L., Parmeh, Z., & Aghajani, Z. (2010). The effect of tariff policy on domestic prices of poultry and veal in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 1(4), 107-124. doi: 20.1001.1.20086407.1388.1.4.7.8 ]In Persian[